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华泰证券港股策略：金融和AH溢价仍有改善空间_我的网站

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一 | Colombo, Oct 11 (UNI) Since Sri Lanka announced in April that it will default on its foreign debt, its 22 million residents have lost access to most medicine and medical supplies, setting them on course for a humanitarian disaster, a report published on Tuesday said.
The report by ReliefWeb, a humanitarian information project of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, was quoted as saying by The Island newspaper that unlike Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sri Lanka’s crisis grew slowly and has garnered few international headlines.
But Sri Lankans are suffering amid the harshest economic crisis the country has confronted since gaining independence in 1948, it said.
With the country’s foreign reserves depleted, the nationalized healthcare system cannot afford to import medicine and medical supplies in sufficient quantities, it said.
Sri Lanka relies on imports for about 85 per cent of its pharmaceutical needs and about 80 per cent of its medical supplies. The country imported $815 million in medicine in 2021, but by May had only about $25 million in foreign reserves to pay for imports of any kind.
Last week in Sri Lanka, Direct Relief staff participated in an extensive series of meetings with Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena and much of the country’s healthcare leadership while overseeing the arrival of what may be the largest donation of medicine to the country since the crisis began.
“For the next six months, they’re (Sri Lanka) expecting a catastrophic number of deaths,” said Chris Alleway, Direct Relief’s manager of emergency response and new initiatives, who led the Sri Lanka meetings.
The 3,500-bed National Hospital of Sri Lanka in Columbo, which usually has 1,300 medicines in stock, is now down to requesting only the 60 most essential medicines, the newspaper reported.
With anesthesia in short supply, most general surgeries in the country have ceased, including kidney transplants. Cancer patients have lost access to medications needed to fight the deadly disease. Diabetes patients must secure and bring their own glucose meters for blood sugar check-ups.
Many hospitals are stocked out of basic items like bandages and cotton balls. The stockouts are forcing rural clinics to close their doors and refer patients to larger facilities in urban areas, which also are overwhelmed by the flow of patients.
Due to a severe fuel shortage, the country’s fishing fleets cannot go far out to sea, slashing the supply of fish that is a significant source of protein in the country, including at its largest children’s hospital, it said.
Sri Lanka is also losing clinicians as they migrate to other countries with more opportunities, while its medical colleges see the number of applicants for medical education decline sharply.
Responding to the crisis spurred by Sri Lanka’s default in June of this year, Direct Relief has delivered eight humanitarian shipments totaling 27 tonnes and 16 million defined daily doses of donated medicine.
The largest shipment from Direct Relief to Sri Lanka -- 18 tonnes of medicine and medical supplies requested explicitly by Sri Lanka’s government -- arrived in recent weeks.
UNI MR。华泰证券研报称，市场对港股中期走势受基本面影响的程度分歧不大，关键变量在全球流动性环境。华泰证券认为，美元因公信力挑战转弱、人民币升值强化，有助于港股AH溢价再度收窄及香港金融资产重估。但对总体市场而言，本轮弱美元所处背景并非去年全球金融条件宽松和risk-on环境，流动性环境偏紧方向并未改变。

二 | 海外10年美债利率大概率高位震荡，日元再度外汇干预或加息都有可能发生，8月央行年会是关注重点。香港在海外提短端控长端思路及港元汇率偏弱的情况下，HIBOR有可能进一步上行。

三 | 因流动性难有增量支持，财报季尚未被充分定价，盈利兑现度更为重要。配置上维持均衡：低波红利（如银行）为底仓；关注中报或确认经营底部的乳品、部分零售；AI链（如晶圆代工）定位进攻品种、小仓位参与超跌反弹；CXO和创新药龙头兑现度高但短期性价比下降，行情斜率或放缓。

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Published on:10:10:57